Nicaraguan Army Folds To Orteguista Version of Attempted Coup

General Julio César Avilés lashed out at non-governmental organizations alleging that they were inciting members of the military institution to strike a coup

General Julio César Avilés lashed out at non-governmental organizations alleging that they were inciting members of the military institution to strike a coup

The head of the Nicaraguan Army, General Julio César Avilés Castillo, for the first time made his position publicly clear, in line with the official discourse, he considers the civil protests an attempted coup against the Daniel Ortega.

President Daniel Ortega described the speech of army chief, Julio César Avilés, as “a message as clear as water and as firm as steel.” La Prensa / J. FLOWERS

Aviles delivered a defensive speech against those who criticize the military institution, during the central act of commemoration of the 40th anniversary of the Army, held on Monday in the Plaza de la Revolución, in Managua.

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Until this Monday Aviles had avoided referring, in his public speeches, to the civil protests that demand Ortega sted down from power.

“We have a strong, solid army, steeped in a thousand battles and highly cohesive. They will never be able to break us. They will never divide us, as officials of nongovernmental organizations who called on loyal members, to open the possibility of striking a coup d’etat to the legitimately constituted government, which we will never do,” said Aviles.

The protests began on April 18, 2018, over a failed social security reform, but then escalated to a demand for justice for the deaths caused by repression against protesters. At least 328 people died, according to the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR). However, the Ortega government only recognizes 200 dead, of which it says where also 22 police officers and supporters of its government.

The Orteguismo attributes the crisis to a “failed coup d’etat”.

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Aviles also called out those who “criticized” him, reproaching them “what they did do” in the appearance of the Army, after mentioning the “challenge” of choking out the fire of the Maiz Indian Reserve, one of the causes of civil protests in April 2018.

Civil organizations and note personalities from public life have demanded that the Army disarm armed groups that coordinate with the police to suppress the civil protests.

The general said there are campaigns of pressure, slander, lies and attacks on members of the Army and their families. He said he knows who “are behind that brutal campaign of attacks and provocations,” but said that should not be taken as a threat, because that is not his “intention.”

In his speech, Aviles reaffirmed the Sandinista origin of that institution and recalled his guerrilla years.

“Thus was born the then Sandinista Popular Army, today the Nicaraguan Army. This new Army was born from the struggle for national liberation. We were born fighting until victory. We were born fighting to live in peace. Thousands are part of it, the vast majority were guerrillas, who from a very young age were aware of the risk of losing their lives for the free, dignified, fair and prosperous Nicaragua that we all deserve,” said Aviles.

 

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Nicaragua Adopts the Cuban – Venezuelan Model

In early October 2018, Daniel Ortega’s regime installed a state of siege via a Police decree prohibiting civic marches. The OAS Inter-American Commission for Human Rights warned at the time that Ortega instituted a de facto State of Emergency. He had essentially suspended constitutional rights such as the freedom of assembly and mobilization, free speech, and a free press.

The goal of the state of siege was to wipe out the independent civic protest and to suppress and divide the opposition. Further, they aimed to impose a false normality through repression. With this, they hoped to coopt the large business leaders and reestablish the regime’s political and economic alliances.

Nevertheless, looking at the facts, Ortega instead deepened his national and international isolation. In addition, for two consecutive years he aggravated the economic recession and the social crisis. This continued until the negligent management of the Coronavirus health crisis brought him an unexpected political invoice. The mismanaged public health crisis wore down the credibility of his leadership, even among the members of his own party.

The regime now announces the imposition of new punitive laws. There’s a push to allow the use of life sentences for certain crimes. There’s a new law to regulate supposed “foreign agents”, and a “cybercrimes” law, better known as the “Gag law”. With these, the regime is recognizing the failure of the police state. The repression never succeeded in squashing the civic protests. Even without massive demonstrations, the spirit of the resistance remains intact.  Despite the National Coalition’s stumbles and the lack of a united national front, today the resistance is greater and better organized. It now has a presence in all of the country’s municipalities.

In the next two weeks, the regime’s parliamentary steamroller will assure the approval of that combo of punitive laws. These impose severe jail sentences for any and all opposition, a majority who represent over three-fourths of the electorate.

However, in reality, the regime has never needed legal pretexts to repress and imprison. Almost two years ago, the police assaulted the offices of Confidencial and Esta Semana and executed a de facto confiscationThis was done without the backing of any judicial orders. Yet, despite the television censorship, they never silenced us. We continue our truth-based journalism. Meanwhile the independent press – persecuted, harassed and sometimes exiled – now enjoys much more credibility and influence than the official machinery.

The latest Cid-Gallup polls confirm that the majority of the population no longer believes the government’s lies about COVID-19. The express burials and the Ministry of Health statistics on pneumonia fatalities and COVID-19 tests speak for themselves. These facts refute the daily monologues of Vice President Rosario Murillo.  Because of that deception, every day political support for Ortega and the FSLN shrinks still more. His backing among the public employees, both civilian and military, continues eroding.

In reality, the “Gag Law” is aimed at threatening the honest and professional public servants. It is meant to keep them from leaking information to the press and the public regarding acts of political corruption.  Such acts are occurrences that the regime wishes to hide.

The “Cybercrimes Law” also threatens users of social media with jail time. However, the dictatorship will continue losing the battle for the truth in social media. They can’t control the massive exercise of free speech and the use of new information technologies now at the service of citizens.

These punitive laws aren’t a symptom of strength, but rather of the political and moral defeat of a minority regime. Why, then, does Ortega need to impose them against wind and tides?  There are at least three hypotheses to explain this imperious political necessity.  All are based on the regime’s urgency to adapt the Cuban and Venezuelan “model” of repressive authoritarianism to Nicaragua.

First, they intend to make full use of the Constitution and laws as one pillar of their repressive strategy. However, they don’t want these as guardians of rights, but as a means to criminalize democratic liberties and civic protest. Clearly, it’s not a carbon copy, but this strategy definitively reflects the Cuban and Venezuelan “model”. The regime is adapting that model to fit a dynastic family dictatorship with the aim of liquidating the democratic project in Nicaragua.

Expedited by the “Law” he’s mandating, Ortega will now be able to eliminate organizations of civil society. He will also control any eventual adversaries and political competitors, by criminalizing them as “foreign agents”. The Venezuelan experience demonstrates that despite high international political costs, the Cuban “model” can prove effective in giving the regime stability. Through this model, pure and harsh repression can be draped in a “legal” mantle. For Ortega, this translates into an incentive to accumulate political hostages and gain time.

Secondly, the regime intends to take over the agenda of justice and present itself as a punisher of “hate crimes”. The latter would now carry a sentence of life in prison. This, in the end, is merely a defensive act. It responds to the need to assure the Sandinista bases that they’re not the ones under the gaze of justice.

Those accused of true “hate crimes”, crimes against humanity, crimes with no statute of limitations, are in the regime’s inner circle. The finger points to members of the Ortega-Murillo regime who are most directly tied to the repression. However, as in the April killings and the failed official narrative of an attempted “Coup d’Etat”, Ortega will point the finger elsewhere. He’ll try to convince his followers that his own hate crimes can be attributed to the victims.

Thirdly, although the Nicaraguan Constitution proclaims political pluralism, this combo of punitive laws assures there’ll be no competitive elections. With these laws, Ortega has ratified his stance for the November 2021 elections. Given this, it’s illusory to expect some electoral opening from a regime that’s willing to play All or Nothing. Though they risk further international sanctions and a declaration of illegitimacy, they’ll be celebrating the elections with no competition and without transparency.

Will we arrive at the opening of the 2021 electoral campaign without a political reform?  The answer to this interrogative doesn’t depend on Ortega, but on the political opposition.  Ortega has already decided to radicalize his authoritarian model. Meanwhile, the opposition continues to be paralyzed. They’re discussing which electoral box is the safest, in imaginary elections in which they haven’t even been invited to participate.

Meanwhile, the national debate must center itself on determining the most effective strategy. The opposition must work on joining forces, weakening the regime, and altering the balance of power. They must thus force a political reform on the regime, one that results from national and international pressure. First, the reform, with or without Ortega, and later free elections.

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