Nicaragua: 10 months of deadly crisis

(AFP) — A now-abandoned pension reform announced in April 2018 kicked off months of anti-government protests in Nicaragua that were harshly repressed, claiming around 325 lives.

Even after the protests ended in October, President Daniel Ortega pursued a crackdown on the opposition with more than 750 people arrested on charges of terrorism.

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As long-awaited peace talks were due to resume Wednesday, here is a timeline.

PENSION REFORM FURY

On April 18, 2018, the government presents a plan to increase employee and employer contributions to the social security fund and reduce benefits, in an IMF-backed bid to cap a rising deficit.

Student-led protesters vent fury in several cities. Daily demonstrations are harshly repressed, claiming around 25 lives in five days, many of the dead being university students and youths.

Ortega scraps the pension reform on April 22.

UNLAWFUL KILLINGS

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On April 23, tens of thousands of people demonstrate in the capital Managua to demand an end to government repression.

The United Nations on April 24 urges Nicaragua to carry out an independent investigation into the deaths, saying some may have been “unlawful.”

CHURCH MEDIATES

On May 16, as the death toll passes 50, talks begin in Managua between Ortega and opposition groups, mediated by the influential Catholic Church.

The Church calls off negotiations after a week, with the government rejecting early elections. Talks resume on May 28.

Amnesty International says paramilitary groups are being used to suppress demonstrations against Ortega’s government.

On May 31, the death toll hits 100 as Ortega rejects calls to step down. The Church again suspends talks.

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When mediation resumes on June 7, the Church tables a plan for early presidential elections and constitutional reforms. It says Ortega requested a “period of reflection”.

GENERAL STRIKE

Violence erupts in Managua on June 11 with anti-riot police attacking barricades manned by protesters.

On June 14, a general strike paralyses Nicaragua, with more deadly violence.

On June 15, the government and opposition agree that human rights observers should investigate the violence. By now at least 170 people have been killed.

UNIVERSITY, BASILICA ATTACKED

Overnight June 22-23, police open fire at a key student protest camp in the capital, leaving more dead.

On July 7, Ortega rules out bringing forward presidential elections, describing his opponents as “putschists”.

The following day hundreds of Ortega supporters break into a basilica in the opposition heartland of Diriamba and harass Roman Catholic bishops.

On July 16, a law on terrorism is adopted providing for up to 20 years in jail for demonstrators. The death toll passes 300.

CLIMATE OF FEAR

On August 31, the government expels the UN human rights mission after it criticized a “climate of fear” in Nicaragua.

On November 1, Washington labels Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua a “troika of tyranny.”

On December 19, the government expels two expert missions from the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights, accusing them of meddling and bias.

ORTEGA SIDELINED

A day later, US President Donald Trump signs a law limiting Nicaragua’s access to international loans.

The police on December 21 shut down an opposition television channel and arrest its director, accused of “terrorism”.

On January 29, 2019, the Socialist International group of world socialist and labour parties kicks out Ortega’s Sandinista party for rights violations.

On February 22, the United Nations condemns the “criminalisation of dissent” in Nicaragua.

As peace talks between the government and opposition are due to open on February 27, authorities release dozens of prisoners arrested during the protests.

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Nicaragua Adopts the Cuban – Venezuelan Model

In early October 2018, Daniel Ortega’s regime installed a state of siege via a Police decree prohibiting civic marches. The OAS Inter-American Commission for Human Rights warned at the time that Ortega instituted a de facto State of Emergency. He had essentially suspended constitutional rights such as the freedom of assembly and mobilization, free speech, and a free press.

The goal of the state of siege was to wipe out the independent civic protest and to suppress and divide the opposition. Further, they aimed to impose a false normality through repression. With this, they hoped to coopt the large business leaders and reestablish the regime’s political and economic alliances.

Nevertheless, looking at the facts, Ortega instead deepened his national and international isolation. In addition, for two consecutive years he aggravated the economic recession and the social crisis. This continued until the negligent management of the Coronavirus health crisis brought him an unexpected political invoice. The mismanaged public health crisis wore down the credibility of his leadership, even among the members of his own party.

The regime now announces the imposition of new punitive laws. There’s a push to allow the use of life sentences for certain crimes. There’s a new law to regulate supposed “foreign agents”, and a “cybercrimes” law, better known as the “Gag law”. With these, the regime is recognizing the failure of the police state. The repression never succeeded in squashing the civic protests. Even without massive demonstrations, the spirit of the resistance remains intact.  Despite the National Coalition’s stumbles and the lack of a united national front, today the resistance is greater and better organized. It now has a presence in all of the country’s municipalities.

In the next two weeks, the regime’s parliamentary steamroller will assure the approval of that combo of punitive laws. These impose severe jail sentences for any and all opposition, a majority who represent over three-fourths of the electorate.

However, in reality, the regime has never needed legal pretexts to repress and imprison. Almost two years ago, the police assaulted the offices of Confidencial and Esta Semana and executed a de facto confiscationThis was done without the backing of any judicial orders. Yet, despite the television censorship, they never silenced us. We continue our truth-based journalism. Meanwhile the independent press – persecuted, harassed and sometimes exiled – now enjoys much more credibility and influence than the official machinery.

The latest Cid-Gallup polls confirm that the majority of the population no longer believes the government’s lies about COVID-19. The express burials and the Ministry of Health statistics on pneumonia fatalities and COVID-19 tests speak for themselves. These facts refute the daily monologues of Vice President Rosario Murillo.  Because of that deception, every day political support for Ortega and the FSLN shrinks still more. His backing among the public employees, both civilian and military, continues eroding.

In reality, the “Gag Law” is aimed at threatening the honest and professional public servants. It is meant to keep them from leaking information to the press and the public regarding acts of political corruption.  Such acts are occurrences that the regime wishes to hide.

The “Cybercrimes Law” also threatens users of social media with jail time. However, the dictatorship will continue losing the battle for the truth in social media. They can’t control the massive exercise of free speech and the use of new information technologies now at the service of citizens.

These punitive laws aren’t a symptom of strength, but rather of the political and moral defeat of a minority regime. Why, then, does Ortega need to impose them against wind and tides?  There are at least three hypotheses to explain this imperious political necessity.  All are based on the regime’s urgency to adapt the Cuban and Venezuelan “model” of repressive authoritarianism to Nicaragua.

First, they intend to make full use of the Constitution and laws as one pillar of their repressive strategy. However, they don’t want these as guardians of rights, but as a means to criminalize democratic liberties and civic protest. Clearly, it’s not a carbon copy, but this strategy definitively reflects the Cuban and Venezuelan “model”. The regime is adapting that model to fit a dynastic family dictatorship with the aim of liquidating the democratic project in Nicaragua.

Expedited by the “Law” he’s mandating, Ortega will now be able to eliminate organizations of civil society. He will also control any eventual adversaries and political competitors, by criminalizing them as “foreign agents”. The Venezuelan experience demonstrates that despite high international political costs, the Cuban “model” can prove effective in giving the regime stability. Through this model, pure and harsh repression can be draped in a “legal” mantle. For Ortega, this translates into an incentive to accumulate political hostages and gain time.

Secondly, the regime intends to take over the agenda of justice and present itself as a punisher of “hate crimes”. The latter would now carry a sentence of life in prison. This, in the end, is merely a defensive act. It responds to the need to assure the Sandinista bases that they’re not the ones under the gaze of justice.

Those accused of true “hate crimes”, crimes against humanity, crimes with no statute of limitations, are in the regime’s inner circle. The finger points to members of the Ortega-Murillo regime who are most directly tied to the repression. However, as in the April killings and the failed official narrative of an attempted “Coup d’Etat”, Ortega will point the finger elsewhere. He’ll try to convince his followers that his own hate crimes can be attributed to the victims.

Thirdly, although the Nicaraguan Constitution proclaims political pluralism, this combo of punitive laws assures there’ll be no competitive elections. With these laws, Ortega has ratified his stance for the November 2021 elections. Given this, it’s illusory to expect some electoral opening from a regime that’s willing to play All or Nothing. Though they risk further international sanctions and a declaration of illegitimacy, they’ll be celebrating the elections with no competition and without transparency.

Will we arrive at the opening of the 2021 electoral campaign without a political reform?  The answer to this interrogative doesn’t depend on Ortega, but on the political opposition.  Ortega has already decided to radicalize his authoritarian model. Meanwhile, the opposition continues to be paralyzed. They’re discussing which electoral box is the safest, in imaginary elections in which they haven’t even been invited to participate.

Meanwhile, the national debate must center itself on determining the most effective strategy. The opposition must work on joining forces, weakening the regime, and altering the balance of power. They must thus force a political reform on the regime, one that results from national and international pressure. First, the reform, with or without Ortega, and later free elections.

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