Public Activities Persist in Nicaragua Despite the Pandemic

It is highly likely that Covid-19 is already widespread in Nicaragua, despite the Ortega government's refusal to acknowledge it

It is highly likely that Covid-19 is already widespread in Nicaragua, despite the Ortega government's refusal to acknowledge it

Public activities that foster crowds, and that are promoted by the Nicaraguan Government, persist in different cities of the country, despite criticism of the risk they represent in light of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Open air mass activities are normal across the country. In the photo, barrio Ayapal del distrito III de Managua

Motorcycle races, group walks, food fairs, sports competitions, in-person training, trips to public beaches, popular celebrations, house-to-house visits, among other activities, took place this weekend in different parts of Nicaragua.

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Baseball, boxing, volleyball, or video game tournaments, as well as street parades and handicraft classes, religious activities and patron saint festivities without the authorization of the Catholic Church, were part of the agglomeration activities carried out in Nicaragua in the last two days.

Before the weekend, Vice President Rosario Murillo, who is also the wife of President Daniel Ortega, had announced about 1,500 activities promoted between Saturday and Sunday all over the country, to the amusement of Nicaraguans.

So far, the Nicaraguan Government has only recognized 13 confirmed cases of Covid-19, including three deceased persons, all “imported” (cases), without making any reference to suspected cases, which has served to refuse to establish restrictions or social preventive measures against the coronavirus-SARS-coV-2.

Discrepancy in data

The official data contrasts with that of the independent “Observatorio Ciudadano” (Citizen Observatory), which in its latest report, issued last Friday, reported 316 suspected cases, since it is impossible to know if they are confirmed, given the Government has a monopoly on testing to determine if anyone is infected.

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May in Nicaragua, an opportunity for national tourism, promotes the government of Daniel Ortega

The official report by the Ministry of Health (Minsa) says Nicaragua has, to April 28, only 3 active cases of the covid-19.

The Multidisciplinary Scientific Committee made up of independent experts who are studying the pandemic in Nicaragua, have warned that the data on Covid-19 provided by the Government may not be real, since it is impossible for the new coronavirus to behave in the country in a way different from the rest of the world.

Scientists believe that it is highly likely that Covid-19 is already widespread in Nicaragua, despite the Ortega government’s refusal to acknowledge it.

International organization such as the Pan-American Health Organization (PAHO), the Organization of American States (OAS), the Inter-American Commission of Human Rights (IACHR), and the Office of the High Commissioner of Human Rights (OHCHR), have expressed their concern of the handling of the pandemic in Nicaragua.

 

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Nicaragua Adopts the Cuban – Venezuelan Model

In early October 2018, Daniel Ortega’s regime installed a state of siege via a Police decree prohibiting civic marches. The OAS Inter-American Commission for Human Rights warned at the time that Ortega instituted a de facto State of Emergency. He had essentially suspended constitutional rights such as the freedom of assembly and mobilization, free speech, and a free press.

The goal of the state of siege was to wipe out the independent civic protest and to suppress and divide the opposition. Further, they aimed to impose a false normality through repression. With this, they hoped to coopt the large business leaders and reestablish the regime’s political and economic alliances.

Nevertheless, looking at the facts, Ortega instead deepened his national and international isolation. In addition, for two consecutive years he aggravated the economic recession and the social crisis. This continued until the negligent management of the Coronavirus health crisis brought him an unexpected political invoice. The mismanaged public health crisis wore down the credibility of his leadership, even among the members of his own party.

The regime now announces the imposition of new punitive laws. There’s a push to allow the use of life sentences for certain crimes. There’s a new law to regulate supposed “foreign agents”, and a “cybercrimes” law, better known as the “Gag law”. With these, the regime is recognizing the failure of the police state. The repression never succeeded in squashing the civic protests. Even without massive demonstrations, the spirit of the resistance remains intact.  Despite the National Coalition’s stumbles and the lack of a united national front, today the resistance is greater and better organized. It now has a presence in all of the country’s municipalities.

In the next two weeks, the regime’s parliamentary steamroller will assure the approval of that combo of punitive laws. These impose severe jail sentences for any and all opposition, a majority who represent over three-fourths of the electorate.

However, in reality, the regime has never needed legal pretexts to repress and imprison. Almost two years ago, the police assaulted the offices of Confidencial and Esta Semana and executed a de facto confiscationThis was done without the backing of any judicial orders. Yet, despite the television censorship, they never silenced us. We continue our truth-based journalism. Meanwhile the independent press – persecuted, harassed and sometimes exiled – now enjoys much more credibility and influence than the official machinery.

The latest Cid-Gallup polls confirm that the majority of the population no longer believes the government’s lies about COVID-19. The express burials and the Ministry of Health statistics on pneumonia fatalities and COVID-19 tests speak for themselves. These facts refute the daily monologues of Vice President Rosario Murillo.  Because of that deception, every day political support for Ortega and the FSLN shrinks still more. His backing among the public employees, both civilian and military, continues eroding.

In reality, the “Gag Law” is aimed at threatening the honest and professional public servants. It is meant to keep them from leaking information to the press and the public regarding acts of political corruption.  Such acts are occurrences that the regime wishes to hide.

The “Cybercrimes Law” also threatens users of social media with jail time. However, the dictatorship will continue losing the battle for the truth in social media. They can’t control the massive exercise of free speech and the use of new information technologies now at the service of citizens.

These punitive laws aren’t a symptom of strength, but rather of the political and moral defeat of a minority regime. Why, then, does Ortega need to impose them against wind and tides?  There are at least three hypotheses to explain this imperious political necessity.  All are based on the regime’s urgency to adapt the Cuban and Venezuelan “model” of repressive authoritarianism to Nicaragua.

First, they intend to make full use of the Constitution and laws as one pillar of their repressive strategy. However, they don’t want these as guardians of rights, but as a means to criminalize democratic liberties and civic protest. Clearly, it’s not a carbon copy, but this strategy definitively reflects the Cuban and Venezuelan “model”. The regime is adapting that model to fit a dynastic family dictatorship with the aim of liquidating the democratic project in Nicaragua.

Expedited by the “Law” he’s mandating, Ortega will now be able to eliminate organizations of civil society. He will also control any eventual adversaries and political competitors, by criminalizing them as “foreign agents”. The Venezuelan experience demonstrates that despite high international political costs, the Cuban “model” can prove effective in giving the regime stability. Through this model, pure and harsh repression can be draped in a “legal” mantle. For Ortega, this translates into an incentive to accumulate political hostages and gain time.

Secondly, the regime intends to take over the agenda of justice and present itself as a punisher of “hate crimes”. The latter would now carry a sentence of life in prison. This, in the end, is merely a defensive act. It responds to the need to assure the Sandinista bases that they’re not the ones under the gaze of justice.

Those accused of true “hate crimes”, crimes against humanity, crimes with no statute of limitations, are in the regime’s inner circle. The finger points to members of the Ortega-Murillo regime who are most directly tied to the repression. However, as in the April killings and the failed official narrative of an attempted “Coup d’Etat”, Ortega will point the finger elsewhere. He’ll try to convince his followers that his own hate crimes can be attributed to the victims.

Thirdly, although the Nicaraguan Constitution proclaims political pluralism, this combo of punitive laws assures there’ll be no competitive elections. With these laws, Ortega has ratified his stance for the November 2021 elections. Given this, it’s illusory to expect some electoral opening from a regime that’s willing to play All or Nothing. Though they risk further international sanctions and a declaration of illegitimacy, they’ll be celebrating the elections with no competition and without transparency.

Will we arrive at the opening of the 2021 electoral campaign without a political reform?  The answer to this interrogative doesn’t depend on Ortega, but on the political opposition.  Ortega has already decided to radicalize his authoritarian model. Meanwhile, the opposition continues to be paralyzed. They’re discussing which electoral box is the safest, in imaginary elections in which they haven’t even been invited to participate.

Meanwhile, the national debate must center itself on determining the most effective strategy. The opposition must work on joining forces, weakening the regime, and altering the balance of power. They must thus force a political reform on the regime, one that results from national and international pressure. First, the reform, with or without Ortega, and later free elections.

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